FT article: Online ads will overtake newspapers in US by 2011

Financial Times: Online ads to overtake US newspapers

This article foretells something we all know is coming sooner or later. However, I wonder how the paper's source, Veronis Suhler Stevenson, came to conclude that we would have to wait 4 more years to witness this eclipse. It seems the prediction is based on the fact that growth in online ads has averaged 21% annually.

But if this has been the average growth, who's to say the revenues will increase uniformly along that 21% line? I would think there will soon come a "tipping point," after which we will see the vast majority of serious players shift the bulk of their advertising dollars to the online market. If that were the case, the growth could go to 25%, then balloon to 30, then to 40, and so on. And if so, we could see online ad spending eclipse the old newspaper guard somewhere within the next 2 to 3 years.

However, either way, we are probably only talking about a maximum difference of 12 to 18 months. The point is definitely that the shift is coming, whether it happens 2 years from now or 4 years from now. The important thing is to anticipate it, and use any foreknowledge to jump ahead of your competition.